Comments on: Kenyan Wind farms: Why they could be another White elephant.

By: Cleophas Libendi

Cleophas Libendi — Tue, 23 Nov 2010 16:57:55 +0000

Dear Carlo,

I am writing in the hopes that you’re still answering questions posted on this blog regarding your project. A few questions for you:

(i) What does the recent announcement of a pull-out of government guarantees mean for your project timelines/project viability?
(ii) Is 3 years of wind data sufficient to compare the potential performance of LTWP to thermal sources for which there is operational data running for almost a century?
(iii) Has the KPLC department responsible for plant despatch confirmed that they would despatch the project once operational?
(iv) Once LTWP is fully operational, what would be the expected load loss due to outages? Is there an existing source of power in the grid that would make up for this potential load loss? If it doesn’t exist, what would it likely be?

Just a few questions that have arisen from your earlier responses.

regards,

Cleophas

By: Jellyfish

Jellyfish — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 13:26:38 +0000

Dear John and Carlo.

My sincere and heartfelt gratitude to you Carlo van Wageningen for your wonderful defence of the project. It is better for the nay sayers to hear it from the horses mouth than from others. I published a blog post on my blog about your project which I think addressed most of the issues but some of the politically oriented people were hell-bent to prove it’s a white elephant. Some of those complaining loudest about this project have done nothing to produce a single MW of power yet they also complain about blackouts.

Kenyans have to learn to read and analyse issues and do background research before criticising projects they know nothing about. John I thank you for stimulating debate on this topic but I think you should also have quoted some of the answers that I gave to Richard from Tucson Arizona. In any case Carlo has done me proud. I hope David will not reject cheap, green electricity coming to his house from LTWP by 2012 or will he?

By: Carlo van Wageningen

Carlo van Wageningen — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 20:33:59 +0000

Dave sorry just realized I did not fully address your question. We expect the first 50MW to be delivering power by September 2011 and the full 300 MW to be commissioned by August 1012.
Carlo van Wageningen

By: Carlo van Wageningen

Carlo van Wageningen — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 20:32:20 +0000

Dear Dave,
The UK investor (GLOBELEQ) was one of 4 parties with whoom we were negotiating sn equity participation in the project. We did not agree on various issues regarding our intended cooperation and we therefore agreed to “disagree”. We have meanwhile replaced their position with another party of equal stature. We do not therefore expect ny delays in the implementation of the project.
Hope this answers your query.
Kind regards
Carlo van Wageningen

By: Dave

Dave — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 10:30:56 +0000

Carlo,
When do you expect this project to be off and running. I just read an investor from UK pulled out. What impact has it had on the project? Will this curtail development of the wind project?

By: Carlo van Wageningen

Carlo van Wageningen — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 11:58:44 +0000

Hi David,
forgive the delayed reply but I was away on business and only made it back to my desk.
Geothermal is a very very good alternative where available and indeed it is base load (always available when in production) and yes this kind of renewable power has great potential in Kenya and therefore it should be persued as it in fact is. Kenya however has a power demand that is in eccess of 7% per annum and therefore geothermal cannot be the only source of renewable to be undertaken, a good power mix ( Hydro, Geothermal, Wind, solar and indeed fossil fuels) will ensure long term power requirements for Kenya so none of the above should be abandoned in favor of a single source. Kenya has very good wind power resource potential and that should be tapped into just as much as other power sources. Furthermore Geothermal is by no means an inexpensive investment, in fact it is higher than Wind power on a per MW installed capacity basis, furthermore development of a geothermal plant from start to finish is between 7 and 10 years, another limiting factor is that in Kenya the largest single Geothermal plant is 40MW oor close to that. There is no possibility of having a single 300MW geothermal plant, so you would need several plants to install a similar capacity thereby adding to time and costs. Nonetheless it is a fantastic resource and it must be exploited when and where available.
Hope this assists in your evident interest in power generation in Kenya.
Kind regards
Carlo van Wageningen

By: kelly

kelly — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:24:21 +0000

Be sure that it is not you that is mortal, but only your body. For that man whom your outward form reveals is not yourself; the spirit is the true self, not that physical figure which and be pointed out by your finger.

By: David

David — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 10:23:11 +0000

Thanks Carlo for your clarification but don’t you think that investment if invested in a Geothermal power station you will produce almost double that amount of power. I believe geothermal power station will be able to produce at peak production 99% of the time.

Another concern I have the power will be interrupted at certain times when there is no wind, don’t you think Blackouts will still be the order of the day? And how do you store power energy when you overproduce?

Anyway I hope the fibre optic will be extended to Southern Sudan where there are many companies in need of cheap internet and the region that is rapidly developing.

By: bkisia

bkisia — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 05:29:28 +0000

Have you seen the size of the wind mills? They are a joke and will not amount to much. It is a good idea, but we are in Kenya, the dust bin (not recycle bin) for good ideas.

By: Carlo van Wageningen

Carlo van Wageningen — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 13:31:28 +0000

Dear John,
Yes the project has a Kenyan partner (and he is neither a politician or a member of any poweferful dynasty, just to be clear about this) but more importantly it is the intention of the project promoters to eventually float shares of the project on the Nairobi Stock Exchange to allow for kenyans from all walks of life, to be part of the ownership of the project. If the Capital Market Authority (CMA) would allow then the project would already have issued a start-up IPO, regretfully the CMA does not allow companies to be listed until they have reached 5 years of operation. So the earliest we can access the NSE will be end 2017/beginning 2018.
Hope this adequately answers your question.
Stay well and regards
Carlo van Wageningen