Wind Farm
Hey guys, some Kenyan bloggers have done some background research on the Kenyan wind farm projects and there is some indication that the cost of the project has been doubled and is not going to be as effective as it sounds. Please follow the discussion here.
Consensus has been building for a Nuclear/ Geothermal power plant
Don’t invest in Wind Power. It’s too expensive, inefficient and undependable. The only way it survives in Europe and North America is through heavy governmental subsidies. Something that Kenya doesn’t have. Electric customers will end up paying two to three times for it when compared to other forms of generation. I read recently where a Wind Farm at Lake Turkana will provide 300 MW installed at a cost of over $800 million USD. This is about twice the cost of similar size “farms” in the US. I hope the contract includes transmission lines for the several hundred miles back to Nairobi. The 300MW is installed. You’ll be lucky to average 75MW or a 25% load factor. Spain has spent Billions (Euros, Pounds, Dollars…you name it) on wind power but it only provides about 12% of grid demand. What keeps Spain electrically afloat is their heavy investment in Natural Gas Combined Cycle (CC) plants that they began to construct at the same time as their investment in wind power. Spanish law requires the distributor, Red Electrica, to pay the wind power generator, 90% over the prevailing rate for conventional power…and to purchase all the wind power produced. Germany, also with a considerable wind power wattage, has determined that 50% of the time their wind machines only provide 11% or less of the grid’s demand. Observe the variability and undependability of wind power at online sites for Red Electrica at:https://demanda.ree.es/generacion_acumulada.html Keep in mind that Spain has over 16,000 MW installed of wind power. Eolica is wind and Resto. Reg. Esp. is what they call Special Regime and includes Co-Generation and Solar Power. Then go here:https://demanda.ree.es/demanda.html to observe the generation curve for each type of power source for the day. Click on the color coded pie chart for each type. Note for Resto.Reg.Esp. that the “hump” is the daily solar power output. For a comparison look at the Ireland daily wind power output here:http://www.eirgrid.com/operations/systemperformancedata/windgeneration/
Click through the Previous and Next Day choices to see the variability of the wind at one of the windiest countries on the planet. Ireland has about 1300MW wind power installed.
Spain utilizes its Hydro power for Peaking loads and to fill in the gaps when the wind isn’t blowing. CC is used for load following and some base load. Nuclear is baseload only along with Co-Generation.
If you looked at the Resto.Reg.Esp. and the hump you can see that solar is a good load follower up to mid-day. It’s not a waste (as I believe wind energy is) but it’s very expensive. Last year, Arizona State University conducted a study of the cost of various types of power sources and concluded that solar was approximately 3.5 to 4 times as expensive as either Nuclear or Coal. They didn’t compare it to wind power because wind power is not much of an option in the State of Arizona.
If solar is chosen then go with thermal. Photovoltaic is very expensive and upsets the grid too easily when clouds go over. With solar thermal there is a thermal inertia that smoothes the rise or fall in output.
In my opinion, there are three reasons why Spain has been able to incorporate so much wind power into their grid. 1) They have an abundant supply of Hydro power that can be dispatched with minutes, if not seconds, that can follow voltage changes caused by varying wind; 2) Their inclusion of CC plants (built about 24,000 MW since 2001) makes up for whatever Hydro can’t do and 3) They’ve installed one of the more sophisticated centralized grid control centers in the world that can control the outputs of their wind farms.
Natural Gas costs can only increase in the future as every country, every utility, and their aunt, tries to comply with some green agenda. Coal of course is cheapest but it certainly will not meet any carbon reduction goals. Some engineers have called Wind Power simply a variation on Natural Gas Power in that most of the time the utility will utilize CCs, similar to what Spain uses their Hydro power for.
My advice would be to go with as much Geothermal and Nuclear as you can get. Some of the newer reactors are designed for load following. Don’t spend vast amounts on wind or solar. Maybe the Europeans and North Americans can throw away money on expensive and inefficient sources but you can’t. Don’t try new schemes. Only go with the proven. Again, maybe China can afford to try new reactors and such, but you can’t. Go modular if you can and start small. If you need some load following or peaking don’t be afraid to install some CC plants. They might not be completely green but they’re better than oil or coal. And remember…while you’re agonizing over whether to buy that one CC plant because it produces a little CO2 the Chinese are constructing about one new coal plant a week!
My allocation would be:
25% Hydro (Use it only for load following and peaking)
10% CC
40% Nuclear
25% Geothermal (or as much as you can get to replace Nuclear)
Plus…Keep some of your old oil plants ready because the reactors are down about once a year or two for refueling. About 30 days.
Good Luck!
Richard
Tucson, Arizona, USA
Does Kenya have any substantial wind corridors that can sustain this undertaking? Hopefully we are not being used as guinea pigs to test this project at our expense. Consensus should favor geothermal because it’s cheaper plus the energy is almost free (in terms that the earth generates it, we just need to tap it), available and it’s relatively cleaner.
I hope not we should concentrate on establishing the right energy mix. I refer you to this exhaustive article on the issue http://jellyfishcoolman.wordpress.com/2009/08/22/kenyan-green-revolution/
The undersigned is the Chairman of Lake Turkana Wind Power Ltd.
I would briefly like to comment on your above article wherein you claim that wind energy is an expensive undertaking, unreliable and will result according to you in high electricity bills seen that Kenya (or Africa for that matter) does not have government subsidies in place to support such green energy power generation systems. You are certainly right in these comments when you compare this project to European examples, however you seem to be unaware of the particularly unique wind resources which Kenya (and you areKenyan I believe) has.
The wind on our particular site has been measured for the last 3 years and this was carried out by an indipendent wind energy consultancy firm DEWI (the wind energy institute of Germany) one of the most respected wind energy firms in the world. These studies have confirmed that the selected site for our project is likely the best wind site in the world with consistent and predictable wind speed averaging 11 Meters per second. Furthermore this wind blows all year round.
This results in a load factor (this is the actual yield from the installed capacity) 55% as base case but incresing to 67% in dry years. When you compare this with the European average of just 27% you will understand why LTWP will be able to deliver energy at a mere EURO cents 7.22 per KWhr (approximately 10 US Cents) which is the tariff agreed with the Kenyan offtaker KPLC thereby making our energy the cheepest in the country.
This compares very favourably with wind energy tariffs in Europe which range from Euro 9.5 cents in Germany and up to 17 Eoro Cents in Italy or 10.4 Euro cents in South Africa. Furthermore LTWP has agreed to transfer to the Kenyan consumer the credits it will earn from Carbon Credits which will further reduce the tariff by Euro cents 0.75 per KWhr. To further answer your query on the total capital cost of the project the amount quoted by you of USD 860 Million includes the development and erection of a 428 Km transmission line ( a 400 KVA double circuit line) from Loyangalani to Suswa to interconnect with the National Electricity Grid. The cost of the wind farm alone, consisting of 365 Turbines of the type V52 from VESTAS will carry a total installed and commissioned cost of Euro 430 Million (or USD 620 million) this is indeed higher than most wind farms in Europe or the USA but this is mainly due to the location of our site which distances 1,200KM from the nearest deep sea port in Mombasa. Add to that the fact that in order to move all our very heavy equipment from port to site we have to improve some 150KM of road from Laisamis to Loyangalani which cost is included in the wind farm cost.
Notwithstanding this we remain the most competitive source of electrical energy in the country. I hope the above will assist in at least improving your concept on wind energy reliability and cost in Kenya whose wind resources should be regarded as akin to proven hydro-carbon (oil) reserves.
Kind regards
Carlo van Wageningen
Thanks Carlo for the clarification. But we will still monitor the progress. We have had a number of White elephant projects in Kenya thats why we remain vigilant.
There are other better ways Kenya can become energy efficient than this bloody project. I believe the project is pushed by donors’ who care about leading Kenya money regardless whether the project will make returns or not. Turkwel power project which is not far from Lake Turkana made no returns but the country continue to pay for the loans.
The problem is Kenyan official are pushed into projects by foreign companies/ governments which make no return to the country. These countries in return they create money and employment for their own people while the poor Kenya is footing the bill.
We in Kenya we don’t need this so called green energy more so we have produced less than 0.1% of the green house gasses.
In one of the comment someone has mentioned that feasibility study was done by a reputable Germany company. Remember World Bank and IMF are reputable institutions with majority of shareholders being the developed countries. For over a half a century they have been screwing developing countries and from that relationship developing countries have nothing to show for, apart from poverty, debt and puppet governments.
Dear David,
I understand your concerns about white elephants and projects such as Turkwell, I have lived in Kenya for the past 21 years and am very well aware of projects that are pushed by bilateral parties whose main interest is to promote sales from companies of their choice and consequently create unwanted burdens on the the country’s economy.
However “this bloody project” to put it into your own unkind words, is purely a private investment, there is no donor aid money involved at all! This is full commercial risk and will produce the cheapest source of power to the Country, so at least in this case Government is certainly not misguided in promoting the project. Add to that the fact that it will open up the whole northern region of Kenya (totally forgotten in the Government development programs thus far) to access electrical power and high speed communication (the transmission line will carry a fibre optic cable), furthermore this is the largest private investment ever in the East African region and it is being invested in the poorest part of Africa (let alone Kenya).
Finally a little word of advice for you, before jumping to conclusions and speak your mind at least try to inform yourself properly before making statements that will embarrass you and put your competence and knowledge in doubt. Blogs such as this one stay on record for ever….but perhaps this is the reason that you do not introduce yourself and simply refer to a name “DAVID”.
Kind regards
Carlo van Wageningen
Thanks Carlo for your response again. If it is a private project then we wish you the best of luck.
However a project of this magnitude and importance should also have Kenyan input. Is there a provision for this?
Dear John,
Yes the project has a Kenyan partner (and he is neither a politician or a member of any poweferful dynasty, just to be clear about this) but more importantly it is the intention of the project promoters to eventually float shares of the project on the Nairobi Stock Exchange to allow for kenyans from all walks of life, to be part of the ownership of the project. If the Capital Market Authority (CMA) would allow then the project would already have issued a start-up IPO, regretfully the CMA does not allow companies to be listed until they have reached 5 years of operation. So the earliest we can access the NSE will be end 2017/beginning 2018.
Hope this adequately answers your question.
Stay well and regards
Carlo van Wageningen
Have you seen the size of the wind mills? They are a joke and will not amount to much. It is a good idea, but we are in Kenya, the dust bin (not recycle bin) for good ideas.
Thanks Carlo for your clarification but don’t you think that investment if invested in a Geothermal power station you will produce almost double that amount of power. I believe geothermal power station will be able to produce at peak production 99% of the time.
Another concern I have the power will be interrupted at certain times when there is no wind, don’t you think Blackouts will still be the order of the day? And how do you store power energy when you overproduce?
Anyway I hope the fibre optic will be extended to Southern Sudan where there are many companies in need of cheap internet and the region that is rapidly developing.
Be sure that it is not you that is mortal, but only your body. For that man whom your outward form reveals is not yourself; the spirit is the true self, not that physical figure which and be pointed out by your finger.
Hi David,
forgive the delayed reply but I was away on business and only made it back to my desk.
Geothermal is a very very good alternative where available and indeed it is base load (always available when in production) and yes this kind of renewable power has great potential in Kenya and therefore it should be persued as it in fact is. Kenya however has a power demand that is in eccess of 7% per annum and therefore geothermal cannot be the only source of renewable to be undertaken, a good power mix ( Hydro, Geothermal, Wind, solar and indeed fossil fuels) will ensure long term power requirements for Kenya so none of the above should be abandoned in favor of a single source. Kenya has very good wind power resource potential and that should be tapped into just as much as other power sources. Furthermore Geothermal is by no means an inexpensive investment, in fact it is higher than Wind power on a per MW installed capacity basis, furthermore development of a geothermal plant from start to finish is between 7 and 10 years, another limiting factor is that in Kenya the largest single Geothermal plant is 40MW oor close to that. There is no possibility of having a single 300MW geothermal plant, so you would need several plants to install a similar capacity thereby adding to time and costs. Nonetheless it is a fantastic resource and it must be exploited when and where available.
Hope this assists in your evident interest in power generation in Kenya.
Kind regards
Carlo van Wageningen
Carlo,
When do you expect this project to be off and running. I just read an investor from UK pulled out. What impact has it had on the project? Will this curtail development of the wind project?
Dear Dave,
The UK investor (GLOBELEQ) was one of 4 parties with whoom we were negotiating sn equity participation in the project. We did not agree on various issues regarding our intended cooperation and we therefore agreed to “disagree”. We have meanwhile replaced their position with another party of equal stature. We do not therefore expect ny delays in the implementation of the project.
Hope this answers your query.
Kind regards
Carlo van Wageningen
Dave sorry just realized I did not fully address your question. We expect the first 50MW to be delivering power by September 2011 and the full 300 MW to be commissioned by August 1012.
Carlo van Wageningen
Dear John and Carlo.
My sincere and heartfelt gratitude to you Carlo van Wageningen for your wonderful defence of the project. It is better for the nay sayers to hear it from the horses mouth than from others. I published a blog post on my blog about your project which I think addressed most of the issues but some of the politically oriented people were hell-bent to prove it’s a white elephant. Some of those complaining loudest about this project have done nothing to produce a single MW of power yet they also complain about blackouts.
Kenyans have to learn to read and analyse issues and do background research before criticising projects they know nothing about. John I thank you for stimulating debate on this topic but I think you should also have quoted some of the answers that I gave to Richard from Tucson Arizona. In any case Carlo has done me proud. I hope David will not reject cheap, green electricity coming to his house from LTWP by 2012 or will he?